How we win Indyref 2

The jostling for position has begun, even though a date hasn't been announced yet, so I thought I would chip in my tuppence worth. How can the Yes Movement win Indyref 2?

We've got to turn this echo chamber inside out!

We can expect the original Project Fear playbook will be reviewed by our adversaries, and the tactics that were most successful will be repeated while others are dropped. Changed circumstances will elicit a suitably altered approach.

We can see already from various well-reported strops that the cybernat slander will feature prominently. This is a tactic to take control of the conversation with faux outrage. If the debate dwells to an uncomfortable extent on austerity, or Trident renewal, or Brexit, or any one of a number of highly germane topics, the tactic is to change the subject by claiming some spurious victimhood which a supine and compliant media can then treat as the story.

When responding to this, strike a balance. Invest enough effort to debunk the slander to all but the most uncritically partisan, but do not allow yourself to be pulled off topic. This debate will be won on the high ground. No-one you really need to convince is listening to you complain about media bias. That discussion takes place in your little social media bubble where everyone agrees on the injustice of it all. But the world is not fair. What's more, we do not remedy that unfairness by complaining about it. We must maintain the standards of our own conduct, the ambition of our own objectives, and the unwavering resolve or our own purpose. We must behave in a way that warrants attention. We must turn the echo chamber inside out. We must inspire confidence, not indulge in complaint.  

Last time Better Together were interested in winning the campaign while the Yes Movement were interested in winning the argument. That granted Better Together a Pyrrhic victory. They didn't care who found common cause with them as they circled the wagons and as a result have squandered most of their appeals to reason while the UK Government deprives them of any others that remain. In the long run they will not prevail. The risk next time is not that they win, it's that we lose. This time we must let them come to us, not fight on their terms. Challenge the sock puppets to have original thoughts. Then people will see they can't.

But by far the most important feature of our approach to the next campaign must be the erosion of unfounded but persistent negative assumptions about us that close the ears of those we are trying to convince. These are the assumptions that inform the attitudes of many former No voters. These assumptions are resistant to the sort of arguments we deployed last time. I am not saying they are irrational, but that the form of discourse to which they respond is not the same as the narrowly defined debates in which we might normally seek to prevail. We must embody the positive, inclusive ambitions we advocate, we must set the standard, at all times we must present a unified and consistent counterexample to every easy adverse assumption our opponents will seek to confirm in minds of those we seek to persuade.

And stop talking to people who agree with you! Find people who disagree with you, respect their right and find out their reasons. You must risk having your own mind changed if you want to change the mind of others. Turn the echo chamber inside out!

Talk about Trident, talk about the real social justice and inclusion agenda, talk about self-determination and our relationship with Europe, talk about the effective stewardship of green sunrise industries, and so on. Don't directly challenge assumptions that Scottish Independence is coupled to the electoral fortunes of an individual political party, or that the party they assume it is coupled to, the SNP, are tartan tories, or that the desire for Scottish Independence is motivated by some narrow Chauvinistic form of nationalism. Don't complain. Let those assumptions gradually wither through exposure to every counterexample in the way you conduct yourself and every subject you raise.

For various reasons I have said on one occasion previously that Indyref 2 should happen as soon as possible, and on another that 2020 would be the perfect time. Events overtook us, and the wave of bigotry and intolerance unleashed by the Brexit campaign once they realised they could not rely on positive arguments to deliver the result they wanted urgently requires a corrective. Therefore most recently I advocated Indyref 2 as soon as possible as an opportunity to formally make and gain public endorsement for counterclaims to prejudice.

However, the timing will most likely be dictated by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. When the UK Government triggers Article 50 they start the countdown to Brexit. This changes the context from likely to certain disaster for Scotland within the UK. Therefore 2020 once again begins to look more propitious.

This time has to be different in another way though. The referendum is no longer just about Scotland. All around the world fascism is on the march. Wherever disengaged electorates are being re-engaged, it is by the shallow appeal of policy-lite fascists gaining power on behalf of unscrutinised corporate interests. This week we witnessed the remarkable emetic that is Donald Trump and Nigel Farage on the same platform. Everywhere intolerance and prejudice is developing new socially acceptable vocabularies, from Brexit to the burkini-free beaches of Nice and Corsica.

In Scotland our electorate is engaged and energised by arguments of substance pursued with logical rigour and the critical appraisal of real evidence. We have a chance to provide a counterexample, not just to our fellow Scots, but to the world. Let Indyref 2 be a celebration of inclusive, positive values and authentic engagement and a rejection of all the lures and lies with which fascists seek to tempt the people elsewhere. Show people there is another way.

Let's turn our echo chamber inside out and provide a beacon of reason and hope and tolerance to which the wider world can rally.