The trade fallacy

It is necessary to nail the trade fallacy now.

The trade fallacy is the idea that a differentiated Brexit solution for Scotland (whether that is remaining in the Common Market as proposed yesterday or, for that matter, full EU membership as an independent state) would be detrimental to trade with rUK, which represents our largest export market.

Although untrue, this fallacy has the merits of simplicity and superficial plausibility necessary of a memorable scare story used to install a truth-resistant knee-jerk aversion to the differentiated solution(s) proposed.

The refutation of the fallacy is also simple, however:

• The terms on which Scotland trades with rUK would have to be less favourable than the terms on which the rest of Europe trades with rUK as a result of Article 50 negotiations for those terms to be detrimental to Scotland. 

So rUK would have to deliberately single out a member of the Single Market for separate, special penalties, undermining the entire basis for any negotiations at all.

So every time any unionist repeats the trade fallacy ask them to clarify if they really mean Scotland in the Common Market would be offered different "punishment" terms from the rest of the Common Market? That is how you nail the fallacy - by demanding that clarification. Because the only detriment to Scotland would be deliberate punishment, and that would derail any broader negotiations.

And this is without even considering the fact that the terms on which Scotland would trade with Europe would be more favourable than the terms on which rUK would trade with Europe, and that most of Scotland's trade with rUK is destined for Europe anyway.